Llano County has remained at three cases of the coronavirus for over nine days, showing that our Stay Home Stay Safe order is proving effective. Though the county has done a good job at slowing the spread, the number of people in our state, as well as in our county, is almost doubling weekly. “We have 7,000 cases in Texas, 3,000 of those were in the last week. U.S. cases are about the same: 340,000 cases total, with 150,000 new ones in the last week,” said Dr. Jack Franklin. “U.S. statistics say that within 7 to 10 days we’ll reach our peak for the coronavirus in the U.S.” The peak is the maximum number of fatalities per day. According to Dr. Franklin, Local Health Authority for Llano County, Texas authorities estimate the state will reach our climax on April 19, with a mortality rate of 72 people per day. “It’s a frightening statistic,” said Franklin. “These estimates are from looking at cases in other parts of the country, as well as around the globe. They change drastically about every three days. The good news is, according to the current estimate, we should have far fewer fatalities come mid-May.” It is predicted that over the next few weeks the infection in Texas will worsen, but then the number of infected persons will slowly taper off.

“When news of the virus first broke, there was a whole lot of fear about what to do. We’ve been trying to calm nerves as much as possible,” said Franklin. “The initial study said the virus had an infectivity of about 2.5, which means you infect about 2.5 people per 5 days if you have the virus. Over the course of 30 days, you would infect over 400 people from 1 person with the virus. If you can practice social distancing and stay in your homes, we can try to keep the virus from spreading, so we can decrease that number, and even go from an infectivity of 2.5 to 1.5, and over that same 30 day period, you’ll only infect 15 people. That gives hospitals a chance to not be overwhelmed by multiple patients at once, like Italy and New York experienced. That was the public health authority’s main concern.”

“The U.S. has a mortality rate of about 1.3%. The people with the worst outcomes are the elderly, with a mortality rate of 8%, with kids at less than 1%,” said Franklin. The elderly are more at risk simply because their immune systems are not as strong, same for people who have autoimmune disease. “When we get older, our immune system doesn’t work as well as it used to. This is common with the flu and other viruses. The coronavirus has a mortality that is approximately 10 times worse than the flu. The flu has a mortality rate of about 1 in 1,000. Coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 1 in 100. The most common demographic of people diagnosed with the coronavirus in Texas are people age 29 to 40. Most people are going to recover from it without a problem.”

“Texas was one of the last areas of the U.S. to be affected. It hit the coastal states first, then slowly the virus worked its way into the interior of the country,” said Franklin. “We’ve got a little bit of a head start on trying to get prevention measures in place.”

There’s been a lot of questions from individuals about why Llano County is not disclosing the number of people who have been tested. “Baylor Scott and White is a massive healthcare system and when they give reports, they tell you where the positives are, but as far as negative test results, they don’t break those down by individual counties,” said Franklin. “In the U.S., 5 to 10% of test results are coming back positive, so if we break that down for Llano County, if we have three cases, we’ve probably tested 30 to 45 individuals. That is a rough estimate. I can’t give an exact number because we can’t get Baylor Scott and White, Hill County Memorial, and Seton to go through all of their data, which is a huge portion of the Hill Country, and tell us how many cases are just from Llano County. They are so busy right now and it would be very difficult for them to do. Maybe when this is all behind us and we ask ourselves what could’ve been done better, this would be a good place to start – having the ability to individually track counties so that we know what’s going on in each area.”

Recently, it has become more and more common to see people wearing masks in public. “If people are wearing the right type of masks and realize why they’re wearing it, I think masks are a good idea,” said Franklin. “Wearing a mask doesn’t keep you from getting the coronavirus, it keeps you from spreading it to someone else. If you’re sick, or if you’ve got a little cough or congestion, wear a mask. Keep from spreading it to someone else.” A regular cloth mask is acceptable. A civilian should not be wearing an N95 mask. Those masks are designed for someone who is in an ICU with infected patients and are in danger of contracting the virus. “They’re the ones who really need those masks, the folks on the front line,” said Franklin. “Those are the masks that keep the individual who is wearing it from getting the virus. They are not simply worn. There’s something called fit testing that the wearer must go through to make sure it is on properly. The mask will not protect you if it is not on correctly.” So save N95 masks for the personnel who are trying to save people’s lives. It’s also crucial to keep in mind that gloves get germs just like hands do; people seldom wash their gloves!

“It’s important to remember that this is not going to last forever. It’s going to be a tough end of the spring, but I don’t think this is going to be something that we’re going to be worried about as much come fall because so many people will have that immunity,” said Franklin. “But over the next couple of weeks it’s going to be tough.”

During the coronavirus epidemic, many people have been leery of taking a trip to a doctor’s office or a hospital for common illnesses in fear of being exposed to the coronavirus. Rather than avoiding medical facilities, call your doctor. Many clinics do Telehealth visits, such as Hill Country Memorial, Baylor Scott and White, and Seton. A Telehealth visit is a virtual one-on-one office visit that takes place over an internet connection through a computer or cell phone. “The world has changed in the last three or four weeks and rather than making appointments and coming in for a visit, doctors prefer to speak with you over the phone first,” said Franklin. “We’re trying to limit people coming in as much as possible right now.”